EO Dashboard Hackathon

Hasret | A Comparative Analysis

Awards & Nominations

Hasret has received the following awards and nominations. Way to go!

Global Finalist

A Comparative Analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic has had different impacts in different regions of the world. Your challenge is to perform a comparative analysis of the pandemic’s economic impacts in urban areas for the USA, Asia, and Europe using the EO Dashboard.

Impact of the Covid 19 on Island Economies

Summary

It is known that islands are more negatively affected in economic and social manner than the landlocked countries with the impact of Covid-19. Economic development in island economies change from one sector to another and there is a continuous change in employment patterns, income, population, local businesses, public sector costs and revenues. The negative impacts include closure of all borders, mandatory quarantine and costs occurred from testing of incoming travelers and partial/complete lock-down of selected areas.Recommendations for the policies to recover and reach a required level have been written in the study. Comparative analyses for the islands are also provided.

How I Addressed This Challenge

The plan of the study:

What did you develop?

I have developed a comparative study of Covid-19 effect on the economy and in the context of social manner for the islands (the workforce is mainly on the urban side) related with USA, Asia and Europe.

Why is it important?

The economy of islands mainly depends on tourism and education sector which is related with the services provided to people.

Mobility of the people is the main factor for the survival of the economy.

What does it do?

The pandemic could destroy the economy of islands easily like a tsunami if they don't make the required strategies and take the necessary actions on time. The conclusion could be no life on the islands or serious poverty.

How does it work?

The internal and external movement of the people is the main indicator for the island economy to survive. It is known that Covid-19 is causing health problems which blocks the movement. Therefore the islands should find solutions for the health problems faster than landlocked countries.

The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) has pointed out that from the starting date of the pandemic, the world has made some active responses that has been listed below and improved each passing day to decrease the negative impacts of Covid-19:

1. Restriction human-to-human transmission;

2. Coordination with authorities to get assistance for the misinformation and to monitor rumors;

3. Launching hand washing campaigns in schools, public spaces etc.

4. Encouraging effective digital communication;

5. Supporting infection prevention and control processes;

6. Supporting the Ministries of Education to implement effective teaching methods during pandemic;

7. Training of teachers on use of hygiene kits and preventive activities;

8. Deciding about urgent responses mainly at the hospitals, schools and nursing homes;

9. Promotion of social sciences research;

10. Significant support for the monitoring of the future effects of the pandemic;

11. Offering technical and financial assistance in banking sector;

12. Monitoring social impact of Covid-19 on the most vulnerable society such as children, women, disabled people and the elderly;

13. Redesigning the social protection system;

14. Psychological support and counselling service;

15. Guidance for child protection;

16. Proposition some plans for migrants;

17. Finding better communication policies with the neighboring countries;

18. Mobilization of the resources for the required parties through the country.

The suggested list should continue during new normalized environment, just making modifications for each proposed part.

What do you hope to achieve?

After explaining the negative and some positive effects of Covid-19 by following a comparative way, with the necessary analysis and case studies, some recommended strategies and policies can guide the islands for the necessary actions withinthe new normalized world conditions.

Detailed study:

"Impact of the Covid 19 on Island Economies"

Introduction

Covid-19 pandemic is a significant reminder of the global interconnections, the vulnerability to the enormous proportions or effect of the risks and sudden shocks that current capital markets systems have been exposed to, and the requirement for mass mobilization to deal with a common crisis. With the impact of Covid-19, retail and hospitality have experienced sharp decreases in consumption because of the stay-at-home decisions and lock-down policies. From Earth Observing Dashboard (EOD) , it is understood that there is a tendency to move from urban areas to rural areas to be safe and healthy. With this movement the quality of the air has started to increase. For example,the lockdown in Wuhan and in the whole of China significantly decreased motor-vehicle traffic and industrial production. The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA’s Aura satellite has measured vertical column density of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) (a harmful gas and air pollutant created by burning fossil fuels from vehicles, industries and power plants). OMI instrument has shown that there has been a decreasing trend in tropospheric of NO2 over East Asia from December 1, 2019 through March 20, 2020 (see in the website of OMI instrument (at GES DISC for OMI data)). It is also experienced that whenever such decisions are lifted, the business starts to return the position in a quick way. Global manufacturing has declined, as businesses with international supply chains have been operating with important uncertainty from border controls and due to logistics services disruptions. Tourism and related businesses have been negatively affected by border closures and the needs for quarantine. Stock markets in America, Asia and Europe are significantly affected whenever the number of Covid-19 cases surged in Italy and South Korea, the world’s 8th and 12th largest economies. The UN trade agency points out that Covid-19 has a global cost as USD 1 trillion within the year of 2020. Covid-19 destroys employment of young people, but it also disrupts education and restricts new labors to enter the job market. The most risk carrying group are the workers in the informal economy.Whenever the impact of COVID-19 on islands is thought in economic manners, the indicators such as real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), domestic demand, production, employment, remittances and tourism earnings, government fiscal and debt positions, poverty and health can be considered. Trade as one of the components of GDP accounts almost 71% of small island economies where it is 50% for less developed countries and 60% for landlocked developing countries respectively (by the software program SPSS).

Economic Impact of Covid-19 on Island Economies

For example, as a comparative analysis,

1. For the islands Cabo Verde and the Seychelles, 65%–70% of tourism flows come from Europe,

2. For the Pacific Islands, tourists from Australia and New Zealand creates approximately half of the total annual tourist arrivals,

3. For The Bahamas and Jamaica, 60%–80% of tourist arrivals are from the USA,

4. Tourism accounts for almost 50% of the regional GDP for Balearic Islands of Spain,

5. Tourism revenues are about 35% of the GDP in the Canary Islands,

6. 70% of the GDP are obtained from tourism in Greece’s Ionian Islands,

7. 92% of the GDP are got from the revenues of tourism in the Aegean,

8. Tourism accounts for almost 42% of the GDP for Crete,

9. In Trinidad and Tobago, mobility trends have decreased 50% for places such as restaurants, cafes, shopping centers, theme parks, museums, libraries and cinemas. This has caused a decrease in the internal consumption,

10.In the Bahamas, mobility trends have declined 5% for places like grocery markets, food warehouses, farmers markets, specialty food shops, drug stores, and pharmacies. It affects the growth of GDP in a negative way,

11.In Indonesia, mobility trends for places of work have decreased 26% and mobility trends for places like public transport hubs such as subway, bus, and train stations have declined 27%. It puts pressure on the government to finance the public and private companies in a significant way,

12.In Malta, there has been 11% decrease for the mobility trends for places of work. It shows that the internal consumption in the country declines,

13.Mobility trends for places like restaurants, cafes, shopping centers, theme parks, museums, libraries, and movie theaters have decreased 13 % and mobility trends for places of work have declined 9% in Japan.

The main economic indicator GDP which can be written as

GDP=Consumption+Investment+Government Spending+Net Trade

The Newman–Keuls method, q shows GDP, and {\displaystyle {\bar {X}}_{B}} are the largest and smallest sample means within a range, is the error variance taken from the ANOVA table, and {\displaystyle n} is the sample size,

with the formula:

Projected GDP Growth Rate

Countries/ Percentage of GDP

World

-3.0%

Landlocked Developing Countries

-0,3%

Developing and Emerging Economies

-1.0%

Least Developed Countries

0,8%

Small Island Developing Economies

-4,7%

Remarkable Views for Finding Solutions For the Impacts of the Pandemic

It is especially important to transform the economy to have a just and sustainable future. The requirement to accelerate the transition to a net-zero emissions economy will become even more critical in the future. It will be felt or continued to be felt as pollution, rising temperatures, deforestation, unjust power imbalances, and the degradation of the natural resources that will continue to grow and affect in a negative way. With the aim of rebuilding the economy, the continuing effort of working with investors and companies will help to navigate the risks and opportunities embedded in the economy.

Long-term government spending, on the other hand, should focus on sustainable, clean energy investments, equitable workplaces and sustainable labor practices.

Governments should focus on:

(i) Specific job retention plan,

(ii) Financial support for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs),

(iii) Regulation for insolvency and restructuring policies,

(iv) Usage of innovative financial portfolios,

(v) Incentives to empower informal sector,

(vi) An introduction or expansion of accelerator & incubator programs,

(vii) Labor mobility and migration,

(viii) Constructive policies to encourage internal consumption,

(ix) Protecting workers.

Main Social Impacts of Covid-19

The social impacts of Covid-19 on the society (children, women, youth, persons living with disabilities, vulnerable groups), on the other hand, are:

1. Violence against children,

2. Gender-based violence,

3. Gender-based violence for adolescent girls,

4. Youth’s need for psychosocial support),

5. Requirements of the persons with disabilities

Positive Social Impact of Pandemic:Case Study

There are positive social impact of Covid 19 on education sector in North Cyprus in the context of hybrid education system (combining artificial intelligence with the online education environment). In North Cyprus adaptive learning has been started to be used efficiently in different levels of education sector.In North Cyprus, some of the secondary schools have started to use dreambox in their Math course in April 2020. In this learning environment, students built math confidence by strengthening their social-emotional skills (skills that include learning grit, perseverance and goal-setting). In order to decide the impact of dreambox on exam scores, a one-way ANOVA (by the software program eviews)was used to find differences among the exam score means of the three groups (A1, A2 and A3). The means of A1, A2, and A3 were compared to each other with alpha which is set to 0.05. A post-hoc Tukey’s Range test

"The formula for Tukey's test is:

{\displaystyle q_{s}={\frac {Y_{A}-Y_{B}}{SE}},}

where YA is the larger of the two means being compared, YB is the smaller of the two means being compared, and SE is the standart error of the sum of the means

The Tukey confidence limitsfor all pairwise comparisons with confidence coefficient of at least 1 − α are

{\displaystyle {\bar {y}}_{i\bullet }-{\bar {y}}_{j\bullet }\pm {\frac {q_{\alpha ;k;N-k}}{\sqrt {2}}}{\widehat {\sigma }}_{\varepsilon }{\sqrt {\frac {2}{n}}}\qquad i,j=1,\ldots ,k\quad i\neq j.}

with the assumptions

a.The observations being tested are independent within and among the groups.

b.The groups associated with each mean in the test are normally distributed

c. There is equal within-group variance across the groups associated with each mean in the test

was used to decide the statistical significant differences between the groups. As a conclusion, it is understood that adaptive learning had a positive effect on the grades and learning skills of Math.

Malta and North Cyprus as European Island Samples For the Responses Towards Pandemic

North Cyprus

The island of North Cyprus had initially health care system with an insufficient capacity to deal with pandemic. Therefore, it was especially vulnerable to the economic and social impacts of the corona virus. The continued entry of people by airway and sea was an important factor for spread within the island. Efforts to obstacle transmission by closing borders between North and South side, airways and sea decreased transmission however put a significant pressure on the economic stability since the economy is depending heavily on tourism, education and international exchange.

On the other hand, it was much easier for North Cyprus to make international lock-down than Abkhazia, Somaliland, Taiwan and other de facto states which are partially isolated because of non-recognition. The reason is that, North Cyprus has only access points to the world via ports controlled by South side and through Turkey.

The large number of foreign students in North Cyprus contributes significantly to the economy of the island. They have a multiplier effect through money spent on food, entertainment, rent and gas(25% calculated by using SPSS). Most of the foreign students have gone to their countries so this return has affected the economy in a badly way.

The other contributing sector to the economy is the construction sector. The construction sector have accounted for almost 12,000 people being out of work with the first days of the lock-down. The majority of the workers were from Turkey and most of them have caught the first boats to go to their own country. Six weeks after the lock-down, Turkish government has begun to distribute aid packages to 10,000 persons. The government has also distribute 1,500 Turkish lira per month for three months (duration of the lock-down has been three months) with the condition that the employers guarantee employment security for the workers. They have been able to reach 60,000 worker with this strategy.

During three-month time, the government has decided to make a temporary reduction from the income of the civil servants and pensioners. The strategy was designed in this way:

1. For civil servants and pensioners who receive less than 5,000 TL per month, there would be no cut,

2. The highest salary would be 8,500 TL per month,

3. There would be a 25% cut for its contributions to the municipalities,

4. There would be no reduction in the salaries of health workers, security people and custom workers,

5. The cost of living adjustment has not been done for three-month period,

6. A fund of 750 million TL has been raised to support the production sector,

7. There has been a 10% discount for those who has paid their VAT, income tax, corporation tax, gambling tax and rent on state properties,

8. The government set up a 100 million TL fund to pay the interest since three-month extension of payment on loans to small-sized and medium-sized corporations that have been closed down during the outbreak,

9. The government has made an increase of 25% for the limits of credit cards by not considering the level of income per person,

10. The payment for credit cards charges related with food, health services and petrol has been postponed for one month without any additional cost,

11. The minimum balance payment for credit cards has been reduced from 20% to 1%,

12. The interest for non-payment of a credit card balance has been reduced from 2.35% to 1% with no payment fees,

13. Turkish Government suspended the implementation of financial judgments, alimonies, evictions and subsistence payments,

14. There has been a 15% discount for those who has paid the electricity bills on time,

15. The government has accepted further payment for provident fund contributions and has removed fees for delayed payment for pension and social security contributions,

16. Extra taxes were put on alcohol, cigarettes and imported milk products.

With the strategy mentioned above, there is a success in dealing with the negative economic and social impacts of the pandemic after one year and six months. The government has constructed a fully-equipped pandemic hospital with the help of Turkey and applied a well-organized vaccine policy for the citizens and students as well.

Malta

Malta has put forward early physical isolation and quarantine and prevented the quick spread of Covid-19. The negative impact of the pandemic was mostly on manufacturing, tourism and service sectors. In order to decrease these effects, Maltese Government has launched a series of measures which amounts 14% of GDP (2 billion euro) to support these significant contributing sectors to the general economic conditions of the island. The island has proposed some unemployment benefits to the persons who have lost their jobs. The first group of vulnerable people have received their initial weekly payment after two and a half weeks from their applications and over 90 per cent of applicants have got their installments by direct credit through an upgraded e-payment system

1. Monthly grant for parents who had to stay at home without having any opportunity for the remote work and to take care of children under the age of 16;

2. Grant for disabled people who have lost their jobs;

3. Grant to pregnant employees who could not have remote work;

4. Euro 800 for full-time and Euro 500 for part-time workers as a monthly grant;

5. 10 % from the special grants was also excluded to make social contribution;

6. Delaying of certain tax payments like VAT, provisional tax, employees’ taxes, maternity fund payments and social security contributions;

7. €350 were granted for each employee on mandatory quarantine leave;

8. Elderly residential homes were closed to visitors to protect them;

9. Webinars were offered to the vulnerable and mostly affected people to cope with the challenges;

10. Deliveries of meals and medicines were offered to the elderly and vulnerable people who were living alone;

11. Mental and emotional counseling has offered by the professional people.

Euro 11.76 million were paid to 8,100 Maltese and foreign nationals over the first nine weeks. The amount of financial support has reached Euro 80 million and 93,000 employees. Almost two-thirds of Malta’s private sector employees were financially supported in the pandemic.

Concluding Remarks

In summary, it is observed that Covid-19 pandemic is a significant reminder of the global interconnectedness, the vulnerability to the enormous proportions or effect of the risks and sudden shocks that current capital markets systems have been exposed to, and the requirement for mass mobilization to deal with a common crisis. It is especially important to transform the economy to have a just and sustainable future. The requirement to accelerate the transition to a net-zero emissions economy will become even more critical in the future. It will be felt or continued to be felt as pollution, rising temperatures, deforestation, unjust power imbalances, and the degradation of the natural resources that will continue to grow and affect in a negative way. With the aim of rebuilding the economy, the continuing effort of working with investors and companies will help to navigate the risks and opportunities embedded in the economy.

Long-term government spending, on the other hand, should focus on sustainable internal consumption, clean energy investments, equitable workplaces and sustainable labor practices.

It can be shortly concluded that the actions should be shaped according to the framework that consists of three facts:

1. Respond -how to react to the crisis (price elasticity of demand, income elasticity of demand, price elasticity of supply and income elasticity of supply could be suggested with the strategies);

2. Recover -how to position (new calculation for multiplier effect during 2021);

3. Thrive -how to ensure success after COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested sustainable policies with the impact of Covid-19

1. Social insurance,

2. Social assistance programs,

3. Active labor market programs,

4. School feeding programs,

5. Youth employment programs,

6.Stimulation of the economy,

7.Support for enterprises, protection of jobs and provision of incomes,

8.Protection of workers in the workplace,

9.Rely on social dialogue for solutions.

How I Developed This Project

I'm living in an island (Cyprus, North Part) in the region of Europe. We have faced a lot of negative impacts with the effect of Covid-19. The aim of developing this project is to detail the negative impacts of Covid-19 on the economy and social life in the islands and to suggest some policies to help to recover from the negative impacts of the pandemic. I have used the software of Eviews (Linear regression, ANOVA) and SPSS (comparable data) for the economic analysis. The data from NASA has obtained to explain the comparable indicators for the social and economic views.

It is not easy to find the same data for the islands considered because of the different statistical models, different policies for being transparent, not clear information about the effects of covid-19 because of significant health problems.

With the data obtained by using different comparable references, NASA/ESA/JXA, Earth Observing Dashboard, Zoonuniverse, a detailed study with the necessary conclusions and recommendations has been written. This can lead to the integration of CSV data base with the regression results.

For the detailed communication, Dropbox has been used.

How I Used Space Agency Data in This Project

Zooniverse, NASA Stem and Earth Observing Dashboard provide qualified information about the countries, islands etc. It is easy to make the connections and find solutions with the information found. It has helped to suggest constructive policies especially for sustainable internal consumption, equitable workplaces, sustainable labor practices, air quality and suggesting consistent policies.

Project Demo

The name of the file with the presentation:

Hasret Economic and Social Impact of Covid19.pptx

Link is:

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3sqk0qgu4843kde18zbyu/Hasret-Economic-and-Social-Impact-of-Covid19.pptx?dl=0&rlkey=aqysl3og8lmms1exnjrqov7qf

Earth Observing Dashboard Integration

Earth Observation Dashboard (EOD) is really helping, for example, in the sense of mobility, population and air quality, which show the components of GDP. This approach directly relates with the government spending, internal consumption and supply of work force as a respond -how to react to the crisis, recover-how to position and thrive -how to ensure success after Covid-19 pandemic.

The economy is a fully respond of industries (capital), work force (labor) and externalities (air quality etc.)

The data is provided in the EOD by Google LLC.

For example:

In the Project's manuscript, it is written:

In the Bahamas, mobility trends has declined 5% for places like grocery markets, food warehouses, farmers markets, specialty food shops, drug stores, and pharmacies. It affects the growth of GDP in a negative way (mobility data obtained from EOD)

ref: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-06-22_BS_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

In the Project, it is written about Malta using EOD data about mobility

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-06-24_MT_Mobility_Report_en-GB.pdf

It is mentioned about the mobility trends for Japan in the project

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-06-24_JP_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

In the Project's manuscript, it is written:

In Trinidad and Tobago, mobility trends has decreased 50% for places such as restaurants, cafes, shopping centers, theme parks, museums, libraries and cinemas. This has caused a decrease in the internal consumption.

ref: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-06-22_TT_Mobility_Report_en-GB.pdf

In the Project's manuscript, it is written:

In Indonesia, mobility trends for places of work has decreased 26% and Mobility trends for places like public transport hubs such as subway, bus, and train stations has declined 27%. It puts pressure on the government to finance the public and private companies in a significant way.

ref:https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-06-22_ID_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

During Covid-19 it is also realized from the information obtained by using EOD,

UN WPP-Adjusted Population Density, v4.11 (2020)

Center for International Earth Science Information Network - CIESIN - Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density Adjusted to Match 2015 Revision UN WPP Country Totals, Revision 11 at the address of https://eodashboard.org/?poi=W6-NASAPopulation

there is a tendency to move from urban to rural areas to be safe and healthy. The quality of the air has been also increased by locking down the factories in the urban areas for some time.

ref: OMI instrument (at GES DISC for OMI data)

Data & Resources

Diverse Voices and Action (DIVA) for Equality, (2019), “Unjust, Unequal, Unstoppable: Fiji Lesbians, Bisexual Women, Transmen and Gender Non Conforming People Tipping the Scales Toward Justice”

Fiji Women’s Crisis Centre, (2013), ‘Somebody’s Life, Everybody’s Business’, Suva

GES DISC for OMI data

http://www.bappenas.go.id/

http://www.maliye.gov.ct.tr/

https://eodashboard.org/?poi=W6-NASAPopulation

https://icaad.ngo/accountability-gender-based-violence

https://images.impartmedia.com/vanuatu.travel/documents/National_Tourism_Business_Impacts_Survey_TCHarold_Covid-19.pdf

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/

https://psa.gov.ph/

https://www.adb.org/countries/fiji/maintps://dominicanewsonline.com/

https://www.fijivillage.com/news/Initial-numbers-show-115000-workers-affected-by-COVID-19--ILO-x5r8f4/

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-06-22_BS_Mobility_Report_en.pdf